[h=1]Saturday's college basketball best bets: Fade Duke in a big conference game?[/h]
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The College Basketball season is in full swing, and there are plenty of betting opportunities. Our experts -- ESPN's Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Jordan Schultz, as well as Vegas Stats & Information's Matt Youmans -- are here to give their best bets from Saturday's lineup of games.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday night unless noted otherwise.
[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]
[h=2]No. 21 Ohio State Buckeyes (-1) at Penn State Nittany Lions[/h]Schultz: Penn State's recent three-game losing streak has exposed a few warts, namely an inability to generate offense in the half court. Remember, too, that Ohio State has already drilled the Nittany Lions by 32 this season. However, Pat Chambers' club remains inside KenPom's top 45 in both adjusted offensive <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">and defensive efficiency. Senior forward Lamar Stevens (16 PPG) has been one of the most consistent scorers in the Big Ten over his career. I think his quickness will give the Buckeyes some problems, as will the scoring prowess of fellow senior forward Mike Watkins (24.8 PPG per 100 possessions).
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Pick: Penn State +1
[h=2]No. 11 Louisville Cardinals at No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (-7)[/h]
Kezirian: I am actually looking to fade both teams down the stretch, as I think they are overvalued, but I have to grab the points in this showdown. I would prefer Duke off a win so I think you'll get a good effort from the Blue Devils but in the end, it just feels like too many points. The Cardinals demonstrated they have the necessary mettle for big-time games on the road, taking Kentucky to overtime, so I am not too worried about the Cameron Crazies. Louisville ranks 13th in field goal shooting percentage allowed and it has enough offense to hang with Duke, in case the Blue Devils catch fire from downtown.
Pick: Louisville +7
Youmans: It's never easy to bet against Duke at home or Coach K after a loss, so tread lightly. Still, it's a decent matchup for the Cardinals, who have the athletes and size to contain 6-foot-10 freshman Vernon Carey Jr. The Blue Devils are shorthanded inside without 6-6 Wendell Moore Jr., and 6-7 Joey Baker is questionable, so Louisville should be able to score inside and out. The Cardinals' Jordan Nwora is averaging 20.4 points and shooting 44% from 3-point range. Louisville has hit 44.4% from 3 in ACC games, with Nwora shooting 57%. The Cardinals are not in peak form, going 3-5 ATS since losing as the No. 1-ranked team to Texas Tech on Dec. 10, so that's a concern. Duke is legit, ranking No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 5 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, but the Blue Devils are not at full strength and the underdog has enough firepower to cover and possibly take this to the wire.
Pick: Louisville +7
[h=2]Purdue Boilermakers at No. 17 Maryland Terrapins (-5)[/h]Kezirian: So much of handicapping is the situation, and this one favors Maryland. The Terps just lost consecutive road games but return to College Park, where they are 4-0 in conference play. In fact, home teams are 37-6 in the entire Big Ten conference (pending Michigan/Iowa game) and 27-14-2 ATS, which is the nation's best mark. Purdue just waxed Michigan State on its home court but is 0-5 SU and ATS on the road against major conference teams. I think Mark Turgeon's team needs to get right and it happens here.
Pick: Maryland -5
Youmans: The home-road splits in Big Ten play are no secret, with home teams winning more than 85% of the games. The Boilermakers make the perfect example: 0-3 ATS on the conference road with losses by 14, 26 and six points, yet they are coming off a 29-point home blowout of Michigan State. The Terrapins are 2-0 SU/ATS in Big Ten home games in January -- beating Indiana by 16 and Ohio State by 12 -- but they are 0-3 on the road and just lost at the buzzer at Wisconsin. One team is fat and happy after a big win, and the other is hungry and at home. The situation sets up well for Maryland, which will have the best guard (Anthony Cowan Jr.) and big man (Jalen Smith) on the floor.
Pick: Maryland -5
[h=2]LSU Tigers (-5) at Ole Miss Rebels[/h]Kezirian: Ole Miss is not very good. There's no other way to put it. The Rebels have lost four straight games, including three by double digits, and have failed to cover in six straight. Meanwhile, the Tigers are the SEC's lone undefeated team in conference play. The spot is not ideal, but I think LSU's talent wins out. The Tigers might trail in the second half, but I think they pull away down the stretch.
Pick: LSU -5
[h=2]UIC Flames (-2) at IUPUI Jaguars[/h]Kezirian: This is a play against IUPUI more than it is a play on UIC. The Flames are nothing special, but the Jaguars are among the worst teams in college basketball. They are 1-5 in Horizon Conference play and Marcus Burk, who is averaging 19 points, can do only so much. It's tough to lay points with a team that has lost seven straight road games, but I am going to pick on IUPUI.
Pick: UIC -2
[h=2]Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons (-1)[/h]Youmans: It typically pays to fade a team after a lights-out shooting performance. Colorado State made 19 of 28 3-pointers in a 33-point victory over New Mexico on Wednesday. Expect some shooting regression from the Rams. The Falcons actually shoot it better from long range and rank in the nation's top 10 in 3-point percentage (39.3). Air Force, an under-the-radar quality team in the Mountain West, is led by 6-7 Lavelle Scottie and 6-8 Ryan Swan.
Pick: Air Force -1
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The College Basketball season is in full swing, and there are plenty of betting opportunities. Our experts -- ESPN's Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Jordan Schultz, as well as Vegas Stats & Information's Matt Youmans -- are here to give their best bets from Saturday's lineup of games.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday night unless noted otherwise.
[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]
[h=2]No. 21 Ohio State Buckeyes (-1) at Penn State Nittany Lions[/h]Schultz: Penn State's recent three-game losing streak has exposed a few warts, namely an inability to generate offense in the half court. Remember, too, that Ohio State has already drilled the Nittany Lions by 32 this season. However, Pat Chambers' club remains inside KenPom's top 45 in both adjusted offensive <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">and defensive efficiency. Senior forward Lamar Stevens (16 PPG) has been one of the most consistent scorers in the Big Ten over his career. I think his quickness will give the Buckeyes some problems, as will the scoring prowess of fellow senior forward Mike Watkins (24.8 PPG per 100 possessions).
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Pick: Penn State +1
[h=2]No. 11 Louisville Cardinals at No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (-7)[/h]
Kezirian: I am actually looking to fade both teams down the stretch, as I think they are overvalued, but I have to grab the points in this showdown. I would prefer Duke off a win so I think you'll get a good effort from the Blue Devils but in the end, it just feels like too many points. The Cardinals demonstrated they have the necessary mettle for big-time games on the road, taking Kentucky to overtime, so I am not too worried about the Cameron Crazies. Louisville ranks 13th in field goal shooting percentage allowed and it has enough offense to hang with Duke, in case the Blue Devils catch fire from downtown.
Pick: Louisville +7
Youmans: It's never easy to bet against Duke at home or Coach K after a loss, so tread lightly. Still, it's a decent matchup for the Cardinals, who have the athletes and size to contain 6-foot-10 freshman Vernon Carey Jr. The Blue Devils are shorthanded inside without 6-6 Wendell Moore Jr., and 6-7 Joey Baker is questionable, so Louisville should be able to score inside and out. The Cardinals' Jordan Nwora is averaging 20.4 points and shooting 44% from 3-point range. Louisville has hit 44.4% from 3 in ACC games, with Nwora shooting 57%. The Cardinals are not in peak form, going 3-5 ATS since losing as the No. 1-ranked team to Texas Tech on Dec. 10, so that's a concern. Duke is legit, ranking No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 5 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, but the Blue Devils are not at full strength and the underdog has enough firepower to cover and possibly take this to the wire.
Pick: Louisville +7
[h=2]Purdue Boilermakers at No. 17 Maryland Terrapins (-5)[/h]Kezirian: So much of handicapping is the situation, and this one favors Maryland. The Terps just lost consecutive road games but return to College Park, where they are 4-0 in conference play. In fact, home teams are 37-6 in the entire Big Ten conference (pending Michigan/Iowa game) and 27-14-2 ATS, which is the nation's best mark. Purdue just waxed Michigan State on its home court but is 0-5 SU and ATS on the road against major conference teams. I think Mark Turgeon's team needs to get right and it happens here.
Pick: Maryland -5
Youmans: The home-road splits in Big Ten play are no secret, with home teams winning more than 85% of the games. The Boilermakers make the perfect example: 0-3 ATS on the conference road with losses by 14, 26 and six points, yet they are coming off a 29-point home blowout of Michigan State. The Terrapins are 2-0 SU/ATS in Big Ten home games in January -- beating Indiana by 16 and Ohio State by 12 -- but they are 0-3 on the road and just lost at the buzzer at Wisconsin. One team is fat and happy after a big win, and the other is hungry and at home. The situation sets up well for Maryland, which will have the best guard (Anthony Cowan Jr.) and big man (Jalen Smith) on the floor.
Pick: Maryland -5
[h=2]LSU Tigers (-5) at Ole Miss Rebels[/h]Kezirian: Ole Miss is not very good. There's no other way to put it. The Rebels have lost four straight games, including three by double digits, and have failed to cover in six straight. Meanwhile, the Tigers are the SEC's lone undefeated team in conference play. The spot is not ideal, but I think LSU's talent wins out. The Tigers might trail in the second half, but I think they pull away down the stretch.
Pick: LSU -5
[h=2]UIC Flames (-2) at IUPUI Jaguars[/h]Kezirian: This is a play against IUPUI more than it is a play on UIC. The Flames are nothing special, but the Jaguars are among the worst teams in college basketball. They are 1-5 in Horizon Conference play and Marcus Burk, who is averaging 19 points, can do only so much. It's tough to lay points with a team that has lost seven straight road games, but I am going to pick on IUPUI.
Pick: UIC -2
[h=2]Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons (-1)[/h]Youmans: It typically pays to fade a team after a lights-out shooting performance. Colorado State made 19 of 28 3-pointers in a 33-point victory over New Mexico on Wednesday. Expect some shooting regression from the Rams. The Falcons actually shoot it better from long range and rank in the nation's top 10 in 3-point percentage (39.3). Air Force, an under-the-radar quality team in the Mountain West, is led by 6-7 Lavelle Scottie and 6-8 Ryan Swan.
Pick: Air Force -1
